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With the Proportional Representation (PR) System in the June 24th elections, the ruling Sierra Leone People’s Party (SLPP) stands a chance of winning majority seats in the next Parliament with a range of 53% to 59%, while the All People’s Congress (APC) retains its place as the main opposition occupying 37% to 46% seats; the National Grand Coalition (NGC) to obtain 0.7% to 1.5% seats in the next Parliament.
This is according to the SierraPoll May 2023 Forecasts Survey Report on a new Electoral Map of Sierra Leone released by the Institute for Governance Reform (IGR), a Civil Society Organisation in Sierra Leone.
The report further states that Female Members of Parliament including the one Paramount Chief Member of Parliament will make up to 25% to 26% of the next Parliament, and with about 60% of the women MPs are predicted to be SLPP. And at least 50% to 54% of the former MPs will be retained.
The essence of the survey, IGR Executive Director Andrew Lavalie says, is to support planning meant to increase the intergrity of the elections, help political parties plan themselves, and their campaign; and also help to manage and change expectations.
Composition of the survey includes the next parliament, percentage of share of women in the next parliament, distribution of the 22 local councils among political parties and analysis of the changes in voting patterns in both multicultural communities and party strongholds.
With regards to the conduct of the SierraPoll survey, Opinion poll, survey data from credible institutions, including official result from the Electoral Commission of Sierra Leone (ECSL) over the last twenty year was collected in mid-May this.
Respondents interviewed, Mr. Lavalie said, are all adults, with registered voters targeted 99.13% covered all Districts across Sierra Leone; and two adopted stages approached.
The face to face interview was done with two thousand four hundred and forty eight respondents, out of that figure two thousand four hundred and twenty eight are registered voters and nineteen unregistered voters.
For the Local Councils, the survey projected SLPP to take 11 to 13 of the 22 councils, while APC is projected to take 9 to 11 councils; with seven local councils in six districts, Falaba, Koinadugu, Kambia, Kono, Western Rural and Western Urban are predicted to have a significant share of opposition councilors.
In this election, Mr. Andrew Lavalie said the 30% of women in Parliament will be impossible to achieve, and will be also be difficult for smaller parties and Independent candidates to succeed. Western Urban will get more women in Parliament followed by Kailahun.
Another product Sense Bod App was also launched by IGR, as a research tool for the electoral purpose, at the Fourah Bay College Tunde Cole Auditorium Hall in Freetown.
